This epistle will delve into Zimbabwe poverty projection with a major focus on forecast and expectations to unfold by 2043, the end of the third ten-year implementation plan of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 long-term vision for Africa.
Zimbabwe is home to just over 15 million people as of 2019 statistics.
The country’s population is nearly as large as that of neighbouring Zambia (estimated at 17.6 million).
Zimbabwe’s population is projected to reach nearly 24 million by 2043.
In 2019, infant mortality was 45 per 1 000 live births in Zimbabwe, which is among the 30 highest infant mortality rates in the world.
The dramatic impact of the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario on poverty in Zimbabwe speaks to the beneficial effect of concerted, cross-cutting government approaches to seemingly intractable problems such as extreme poverty.
Zimbabwe’s economy has suffered a series of intense and prolonged economic crises that have been among the worst in Africa’s recent history.
GDP has slowly recovered to an estimated US$19.4 billion in 2019 and is projected to reach US$57.3 billion by 2043.
Roughly two out of five Zimbabweans (6.7 million people) were living in extreme poverty (using US$3.20) in 2019.
Although this poverty rate of nearly 45% is projected to decline to 20% by 2043, 4.7 million Zimbabweans will be living in extreme poverty on the Current Path.
In 2019, Zimbabwe emitted an estimated 3.8 million tons of carbon – less than the country emitted in the mid-1990s, when emissions reached nearly 5 million tons. On the Current Path, population growth and economic growth will contribute to modest increases in emissions.
The dramatic impact of the Agriculture scenario on poverty reflects how interconnected the Zimbabwean economy is with the agriculture sector and the extent to which Zimbabwe’s most vulnerable populations depend on subsistence agriculture.
Education offers bright but fragile hope for Zimbabwe’s development. The Education scenario positively impacts livelihoods in Zimbabwe but is not sufficient to dramatically reduce poverty in the country; consequently, it is an urgent task the Zimbabwean government needs to pursue immediately.
The modest impact of the Manufacturing/Transfers scenario on livelihoods in Zimbabwe reflects, among other issues, the dire state of the Zimbabwean economy. Even in this scenario, the average Zimbabwean earns approximately half of his or her average counterpart in lower middle-income Africa.
The greater electricity access modelled in the Leapfrogging scenario has the potential to improve livelihoods only modestly in Zimbabwe. More than improvements to renewable energy, electrical, and Internet infrastructure are needed to significantly alleviate poverty.
Among all of the scenarios explored, the Free Trade scenario has the largest impact on economic livelihood, reflecting the benefits that participation in the African Continental Free Trade Agreement and increased economic freedom would have on the country.
The increased inward remittances and aid and foreign direct investment flows modelled in the Financial Flows scenario only slightly impact poverty levels in Zimbabwe. Clearly, improvements in inward flows of money to the country alone are insufficient to alleviate poverty in Zimbabwe.
The Infrastructure scenario shows that while infrastructure is critical to improving livelihoods — particularly outside of cities, where vulnerable populations are often isolated from critical resources and services — it alone is incapable of dramatically improving incomes in a country facing complex developmental challenges.
Improvements in governance alone are insufficient to improve livelihoods in Zimbabwe. The improvement in average incomes in Zimbabwe in the Governance scenario is negligible when compared to the Current Path, underscoring the need for a multi-faceted approach to improving livelihoods in the country.
On the Current Path, Zimbabwe’s carbon emissions will increase from the 2019 estimate of 4 million tons to nearly 10 million tons in 2043.
The Free Trade scenario has the largest impact in increased carbon emissions over the Current Path forecast. Conversely, the Demographic scenario, owing to slower population growth, causes the most significant decrease in carbon emissions.
Zimbabwe has 13 working-age persons (aged 15–64) for every ten dependants — fairly average for Southern Africa. This low ratio is, however, improving.
In addition to access to modern contraceptives and basic healthcare, accessibility to and quality of education for girls and women is critical to ensuring that the demographic dividend will bring about economic growth.
The Food Poverty Line (FPL) for one person in December 2023 was ZWL106,696.52.
This means that the minimum needs basket cost ZWL106,696.52 per person in December 2023.
The amount represents an increase of 21.6 percent over the November 2023 figure of ZWL87,756.38.
Food Poverty Line represents the amount of money that an individual requires to afford daily minimum energy intake of 2,100 calories.
The Total Consumption Poverty Line (TCPL) for one person was ZWL140,252.59 in December 2023.
As the nation grapples with el-nino induced drought, the poverty situation is escalating to alarming levels.